Conference "Enhancing Trade Position in a Changing World - The Path to Vietnam's High-Income Future"

The conference hosts were Prof. Dr. Nguyen Xuan Thang, a Politburo member, HCMA President, and Chairman of the Central Theoretical Council, and Ms. Manuela V. Ferro, Vice President for East Asia-Pacific, World Bank.

Prof. Dr. Nguyen Xuan Thang gave a concluding speech

Achievements in Vietnam’s development journey

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Duong Trung Y stated that Vietnam is at a critical juncture in its development journey. Since the late 1980s, Vietnam has undergone a comprehensive and profound economic and social transformation. Through the renovation process, over the past 40 years, the country has transformed from a state-subsidized, bureaucratic, centrally-planned economy to a socialist-oriented market economy.

These changes have resulted significantly in Vietnam's economic growth. From 1986 to 2023, Vietnam's average annual GDP growth rate (at constant prices) was among the highest in the region, at roughly 6.5%. Real GDP per capita reached around 4,400 USD in 2023, nearly 45 times higher than it was in 1986 (96 USD). Vietnam has become a major exporter of commodities in many fields, including electronics, textiles, footwear, wooden furniture, and agricultural items. With these noteworthy developments, Vietnam is expected to become an economy reaching upper-middle income status before 2030.

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Duong Trung Y gave the introductory speech at the conference

In addition, the transition has pulled millions of people out of poverty (the multidimensional poverty rate decreased from over 60% in the late 1980s to less than 6% in 2023). People's access to health care, education and social protection services has been enhanced; educational attainment and median age have also increased (from 65.5 in 1993 to 74.5 in 2023), along with the growth of social services, contributing to improving the quality of life for Vietnamese people.

However, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Duong Trung Y believed that past achievement does not automatically equate to future success. The development of Vietnam is likely no exception. The current questions are how Vietnam's development path toward a high-income future will be shaped during the next two decades, how Vietnam can avoid falling into the so-called "middle-income trap" during that journey and successfully accomplish the objectives and development course chosen by the Party and the country.

These trends also indicated that to achieve a high-income future, Vietnam will need to implement groundbreaking changes in conducting its policy and institutional reforms in the upcoming years, including adjustments to guarantee efficient policy implementation.

Ms. Manuela V. Ferro, Vice President for East Asia and Pacific, World Bank shared her opinions at the conference

WB expert shared the report results at the conference

A comprehensive approach is required to encourage growth and strengthen Vietnam's place in the global value chain

At the conference, World Bank experts presented key findings from the new report. Ms. Manuela V. Ferro said: "Global trade integration has brought significant benefits to Vietnam. However, Vietnam needs a higher growth rate to achieve the goal of being a high-income country by 2045. This calls for a thorough approach to policy reform, to transform the growth model and seize opportunities from the changing global context...". In addition, Vietnam's export-led growth model is currently experiencing many major challenges: a lack of highly skilled human resources, poor connections between domestic and foreign enterprises, infrastructure bottlenecks, and high carbon emissions in export production activities.

Based on information shared from the report, delegates and scientists addressed and clarified changes and impacts on Vietnam's development process in the context of both domestic and foreign development. Moreover, they highlighted opportunities, challenges, and experiences of certain countries in moving from a middle-income to an upper-middle-income economy.

Delegates also examined the need to alter Vietnam's growth model. Numerous viewpoints clearly expressed their ideas about Vietnam's present trading position and the requirements for the country to establish a stronger trading position in a quickly changing world. The presentations also made the case that handling this shift is especially challenging given the significant shifts in the context of profound changes in the global trading system, when economic, geopolitical, and technical forces are rapidly transforming international investment and investment flows.

Experts and scientists discussed at the conference

According to the presentations, to overcome this obstacle, a comprehensive plan is required to boost productivity growth, draw in private sector investment, and strengthen Vietnam's place in the global value chain. Some of the key policy solutions are promoting deeper trade integration; improving connectivity between domestic businesses and global value chains; reshaping the trade model for a higher value-added, as well as greater sustainability and adaptability; encouraging activities using modern technology and specialized skills to create high value-added; transitioning to a low-carbon production model; pushing sustainable growth, digital transformation, and green economic development; and developing a highly skilled workforce through reform of higher education and vocational training, etc.

In the concluding speech, Prof. Dr. Nguyen Xuan Thang affirmed the World Bank’s report closely reflects Vietnam's reality over the past few decades and contains crucial information contributing to Vietnam's ability to solve current problems in trade with the world. The proposed changes for Vietnam, set against the backdrop of the complex dynamics of the global economy, present both opportunities and challenges, requiring strong determination and effort.

Delegates attending the conference